The can't miss talent of the draft is the 19 year old big man from the Bahamas, DeAndre Ayton. Ayton is a unique talent, offering an array of finishing moves around the rim with emphatic dunks that remind me of Shawn Kemp. Ever since stepping on the floor last season with Arizona, he towered over the opposition, possessing an NBA-ready body. In 24 of his 35 games played, he recorded a double-double, finishing the year with an average of 20.1 ppg and 11.6 rpg. While not an outstanding shooter, Ayton still offers an outside game, an element that is becoming increasingly important among NBA big men. Perhaps his biggest knock last season was his engagement on the court. There were times, albeit brief, where Ayton appeared to get lost in the shuffle. This is can be fixed though, and I believe Ayton is the best player and should go number one in this year's draft.
The argument can be made that Marvin Bagley III had the best collegiate season last year in his freshman campaign at Duke. He averaged 21.0 ppg to go along with 11.0 rpg while leading the Blue Devils to the Elite Eight. Just as there are some who believe he was best collegiate basketball player in the nation last season, there are those who believe he is the best player in this year's NBA Draft. When watching him play, he checks nearly every box, especially when considering the evolution of big men in the Association today. He has great size, can run the floor exceptionally well, plays above the rim, and can handle the ball like a guard. With a nice lefty stroke that and the ability to score at all three levels on the floor, Bagley has similar traits to a young Chris Bosh. Bagley, however, needs to continue to add weight and desperately needs to become a stronger player on the defensive end, where his deficiencies led to Coach K installing a 2-3 zone halfway through Duke's season.
Following the two collegiate big men, I introduce to you professional shooting guard, EuroLeague MVP, Luka Doncic. I absolutely love Luka's game. Just last month, Doncic became the youngest ever to win MVP in the EuroLeague, a league that is often regarded as the second best professional league in the world. Playing in the EuroLeague since he was 16 years old, Doncic exploded onto the scene this season, seeing his potential flourish while playing for Real Madrid. In just 25.0 mpg, Doncic averaged 14.5 ppg, 5.2 rpg, and 4.6 apg. He is exactly what teams desire in an NBA guard with the ability to score from deep, inside the line, and at the rim while also possessing the size and skill to play 1-3. He liked to display his no-look passes throughout the season, finding teammates across the court through traffic. What I'm most worried about is his slow first step. He is not good in changing speeds and exploding past defenders in Europe, something that will need to change when he comes to the States.
I'll be honest, I initially was not high on Trae Young as an NBA player. You can tell me I'm believing the hype or whatever you want, but here's the thing: the NBA is built on players who can shoot and players who can create for themselves. These two traits just so happen to be Trae Young's two biggest strengths. Young set college basketball on fire last season, bursting onto the scene to average 27.4 ppg and 8.7 apg. To put things into perspective, these numbers were met with 5.2 turnovers per game, a number that Young cannot evade. Still, he showed that he can take a very average Oklahoma team that went 11-20 two years ago and make them an NCAA Tournament squad. Imagine him playing with four other NBA players that defenses have to respect. The floor will open up for Young to do what he does best: create. Will there be growing pains? Sure. Are his height and weight limitations on his game? It's possible. But I'll tell you one thing; Trae Young is the hardest worker in this draft class. He wants to be great. It's difficult to teach desire like that.
Porter Jr. appeared in three games last season at Missouri, going down within the first two minutes of his first collegiate game and the first game of Missouri's season with a gruesome back injury that required surgery. Despite it being believed that Porter would miss the remainder of the season, he returned for Mizzou's final two games, where we got a glimpse of what made Porter Jr. the No. 2 prospect in the nation entering the season. With the back being a concern as well as a hip injury flaring up recently, Porter Jr. enters Thursday night as one of the more intriguing prospects. At 6' 11" and with the ability to score from anywhere on the court, Porter Jr. has all the makings of a star and the cornerstone of a franchise. He just carries a lot of risk, and there are aspects of his game that are not great. He needs to add strength to his frame and must develop a quicker game all around, from his ability to create to his jump shot. If he performs without limitation and improves on those areas, look for him to be a steal for whatever team snags him in the middle of the lottery. He has the potential to go down as the best player from this draft class.
The 7 footer by way of Texas checks in at No. 7. NBA scouts and GM's have been ecstatic ever since Bamba stepped on the floor at the Scouting Combine last month. While I don't like to put too much emphasis on measurements and get too excited about what one does at a combine, Bamba's cannot go unnoticed: a 7' 10" wingspan and 9' 7.5" standing reach. This got people talking. Then he went and ran a 3.04 three-quarters-court sprint while working out for the Chicago Bulls, a time that was faster than explosive point guards John Wall and Russell Westbrook. While this is nice, wingspan and three-quarter-court sprints won't win basketball games. But they can certainly help, and with a 3.7 bpg average last season against mainly Big 12 competition, Bamba is the defensive stopper many teams are looking for. Toss in his agility and the ability to handle the ball (and shoot threes!!!) and Bamba is a physical freak.
Perhaps the safest pick in the lottery this year is Mikal Bridges out of Villanova. Bridges, who was a member on both of Villanova's Championship winning teams in 2016 and 2018, is a knock-down shooter who doesn't need a ton of shots in order to be effective. Last season, with much of the focus on point guard and National Player of the Year Jalen Brunson, Bridges added 17.7 ppg on 51% shooting from the field and 43% shooting from deep. He also has some bounce, and became Nova's lockdown defender. In the pros, Bridges has the chance the be a solid starter for 10-plus years, being the 3-and-D player that many teams want now. Just because he doesn't have the potential that some others have doesn't mean he won't be a great player. He is a winner, a leader, and a scorer, things that can be hard to find midway through the lottery.
Explosion is the word I think of when I watch Collin Sexton play. He was a lot of fun to watch last year at Alabama, leading the Crimson Tide, mainly known as a football school, back to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2012. He was introduced to a larger audience in November, when, playing without two players on the floor, scored 40 points against then No. 14 ranked Minnesota. Yeah, he was the most outstanding player on the floor, and his team was playing 3 against 5. His biggest setback has been his jumpshot, which we've seen out of explosive point guards in the past: Russell Westbrook, Derrick Rose, Kris Dunn. He also lacks some touch around the rim, particularly with his left hand. Still, as a big time competitor, Sexton is not a guy you want to play against.
To round of the top 10, I have the 6' 6" point, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Those that may be surprised by the ascension of Trae Young last season should be shocked by the play of Gilgeous-Alexander. He was initially the backup point guard to Quade Green, but by the time the regular season began, Shai was starting for Coach Cal. Before long, it was Gilgeous-Alexander, not Kevin Knox, who was running the offense and setting the tone. At 6' 6" and with a 7' 0" wingspan, Gilgeous-Alexander is a bit of an anomaly at point guard. He still needs to add muscle and become a smarter player, but he is a young leader who seized an opportunity at Kentucky and made the most of it.
Jaren Jackson Jr. checks in at No. 11 on my Big Board. Is it too low? I don't believe it is, but some will say otherwise. After all, the Atlanta Hawks and Memphis Grizzlies are inquiring about taking him with the third and fourth pick. I just don't see the hype with Jackson Jr. He's still a very raw player with tons of room to improve, and at just 18 years old, he is one of the youngest prospects in the draft. Last season at Michigan State, Jackson showed off his athleticism and agility at nearly 7' 0". He also showed the ability to knock down the three ball. However, his form is questionable, with it coming from the hip and looking forced. There were also instances last season where Tom Izzo did not play him in crunch time minutes. He still has some growing up to do, but if he were to reach his potential, he'll be a top five talent in this class.
Behind only Porter Jr. in terms of a bigger scorer off the wing is Kevin Knox. Last season at Kentucky can be looked at two different ways. One way it can be perceived is a failure. Knox came into the year as the highest ranked incoming freshman, yet never quite lived up to the high expectations and had the leadership role stripped away by point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. However, another way of looking at his season is as a work-in-progress. Knox became a much better player, primarily on defense, later in the season. With his large frame and quick feet, he can guard almost any position. There were times that he seemed disengaged, but that mostly occurred during the first half of the season. With his upward trajectory leading into Thursday night, look for Knox to go anywhere from 8-15.
Miles Bridges opted to come back for his Sophomore year at Michigan State in hopes of making a run at the National Championship and improving his draft stock. Unfortunately, neither came to fruition, as Michigan State was bounced in the second round by Syracuse and Bridges is in the same position he would have been last year. We did get to see more of his game, though, as his leadership certainly developed. He also showed he has no fear for the big moment, calmly knocking down a three pointer with just seven seconds on the clock against then No. 3 ranked Purdue. Something he can't avoid is his status as a "tweener." At 6' 7", Bridges has the body of 4 but the size of a 3. Something he can work on, though, is his playmaking ability. Whoever gets him will be pleased with some highlight reel finishes.
We've seen over time just how important shooting the ball can be. Aside from maybe Trae Young, Jerome Robinson is the next best shooter in this draft class. His play went relatively unnoticed despite playing in the ACC at Boston College. That's mostly due to the fact that the Eagles went a combined 35-64 over Robinson's three year span. While he did struggle to create for himself off the dribble and his teammates, he did get better each year. Regardless of Boston College's lack of success, teams will be looking for a bonafide scorer that can scores in threes rather than twos. This is that guy.
One guy that has gone under the radar in this draft class is guard Aaron Holiday. He had a terrific season at UCLA as a junior, posting 20.3 ppg and 5.8 apg. He was given the keys to the offense after playing behind Lonzo Ball, Bryce Alford, and Isaac Hamilton, thriving in his new role. Holiday also comes from an NBA family, with brothers Jrue and Justin currently playing for the New Orleans Pelicans and Chicago Bulls, respectively. His age may move him down the board but his play will be similar if not better than guys drafted in the lottery.
Lonnie Walker IV is a guy that could find his way into the lottery Thursday evening. He has a plethora of finishing moves around the rim and is able to use his body as a shield against bigger defenders. He will need to play for a team that gives him a chance to create with the ball, a tricky proposition for a rookie guard drafted in the middle of the first round. Still, Walker IV can carve out a role for himself thanks to his relentless aggressiveness.
I really like Zhaire out of Texas Tech. Chris Beard's Texas Tech team had ridiculously quiet Elite Eight run and one of the best season no one talked about. Zhaire Smith was a big reason behind the Red Raiders sudden success. As the starting 2-guard, Smith averaged 11.3 ppg and 5.0 rpg. His game is very bouncy, showing off his high-flying ability on a numerous of occasions. To be better at the next level, Zhaire will need to become more confident in his three point shot. His form isn't bad, he just needs to trust it.
Similar to Miles Bridges, Robert Williams III decided to come back to Texas A&M for his sophomore season. Similar to Bridges, his stock did not improve. That's not to say he won't be a good NBA player, though. He might be the most explosive big man in the draft (yeah, even more explosive than Ayton or Bagley). The problem is he consistently disappeared at times during his two year playing career at A&M. His game isn't complete, but the raw athleticism jumps out at you upon watching him play.
We haven't seen him play in over a year, but when we did see Mitchell Robinson take the court, he looked a revolutionary big man. Over 7 feet tall, Robinson handles the ball like a guard, loves the mid-range jumper, and is force on the block defensively. He was initially committed to Texas A&M, where he decommitted and decided to commit to Western Kentucky. During the first few weeks of classes, the No. 11 recruit decommitted from Western Kentucky, citing that he wanted to focus solely on training for the NBA. He's one of the biggest questions marks entering Thursday night.
Bates-Diop took MAJOR strides last season as a senior at Ohio State. Playing under first-year Head Coach Chris Holtmann certainly helped, but Bates-Diop looked in control of a Buckeyes team that made the NCAA Tournament as a 6 seed and took a very good Gonzaga team down to the wire in the Second Round. At the next level, Bates-Diop will have to accept a different role from that he had Ohio State, a role where he will he relied on to hit open shots and defend opposing forwards. He will find a spot in the league and become an even better scorer over the years.
Have you noticed how Creighton has continued to find success post-Doug McDermott? The new "Khyri" is a big reason why. In the 33 games he played last season, he scored in double-digits 29 times. At 6' 4", he may a bit small to play the 2-guard, a position he exceeded in at college against smaller competition. But as a very composed, consistent player, I feel he should go in the first round with the chance to outplay those drafted ahead of him.
To continue along with the Villanova lovefest, I have Omari Spellman landing at No. 22. In just one season, Spellman became the man in the middle for Nova that many schools had to gameplan around. With a big body (254 lbs), he can bang down low, but also has the touch to step out beyond the three point arc and hit the shot, reminding some of poor man's Draymond Green. With more and more teams seeking a player of this stature, Spellman, in the right situation, can be sneaky good.
It's difficult to think of a college basketball player in recent memory that has been as polarizing as Grayson Allen. Some praise him for his tenacious, gritty style of play. Others call it dirty and uncalled for. Add in the fact that he played at Duke and you have the perfect player to love/hate depending on which side of the fence you're on. The truth is, Allen has a great work ethic. He wants to win, and will work for it, dirty or not. Add in his improved shooting and recall his quietly elite athleticism, and Allen will find a spot in the league for a number of years playing either guard spot.
When I think back to players that have shot up the draft board thanks to an impressive season of NCAA Tournament run, I think of guys like Kemba Walker and Jimmer Fredette, who rose up boards thanks to a series of impressive games throughout the year. I never remember a guy having two really good games and suddenly becoming a lock for the first round. That's the case with Donte DiVincenzo. If you've been watching Villanova the past couple of years, his talent and success may not come as much of a surprise as those casually watching the National Championship game. He can shoot, has an aggressive baseline drive, and plays above the rim. His ball handling is very suspect, and I felt that one more year at college would've been best, but when you're stock is as hot as "The Michael Jordan of Delaware," why not jump to the Association?
Gary Trent Jr. is knockdown shooter that is the ideal 3-and-D player. He may not be a starter at the next level but can be a very serviceable guard. In terms of shooting form, his may be at the top of the class. The next step for him is to find a way to score from each level on the floor. If he can add this playmaking dimension to his game, his potential goes up considerably.
26. Anfernee Simons - PG/SG
IMG Academy (HS)
6' 3" - 185 lbs - 19 years old
27. Chandler Hutchison - SF/SG
Senior - Boise State
6' 7" - 195 lbs - 22 years old
28. Jalen Brunson - PG
Junior - Villanova
6' 2" - 198 lbs - 21 years old
29. Moritz Wagner - PF/C
Junior - Michigan
7' 0" - 241 lbs - 21 years old
30. Kevin Huerter - SG/SF
Sophomore - Maryland
6' 7" - 195 lbs - 19 years old
31. Troy Brown Jr. - SG
Freshman - Oregon
6' 7" - 208 lbs - 18 years old
32. Allonzo Trier - SG/PG
Junior - Arizona
6' 5" - 198 lbs - 22 years old
33. Landry Shamet - PG/SG
Sophomore - Wichita St
6' 5" - 189 lbs - 21 years old
34. Rawle Alkins - SG
Sophomore - Arizona
6' 4" - 217 lbs - 20 years old
35. Dzanan Musa - SF
Cedevita
6' 9" - 195 lbs
36. Melvin Frazier - SG
Junior - Tulane
6' 6" - 198 lbs - 21 years old
37. De'Anthony Melton - SG/PG
Sophomore - USC
6' 3" - 193 lbs - 20 years old
38. Tony Carr - PG
Sophomore - Penn State
6' 5" - 199 lbs - 20 years old
39. Kevin Hervey - SF/PF
Senior - UT Arlington
6' 8" - 212 lbs - 21 years old
40. Jevon Carter - PG
Senior - West Virginia
6' 2" - 196 lbs - 22 years old
41. Justin Jackson - SF/PF
Sophomore - Maryland
6' 7" - 229 lbs - 21 years old
42. Jarred Vanderbilt - PF
Freshman - Kentucky
6' 9" - 215 lbs - 19 years old
43. Josh Okogie - SG/SF
Sophomore - Georgia Tech
6' 5" - 211 lbs - 19 years old
44. Shake Milton - PG/SG
Junior - SMU
6' 6" - 207 lbs - 21 years old
45. Trevon Duval - PG
Freshman - Duke
6' 3" - 191 lbs - 19 years old
46. Malik Newman - SG
Junior - Kansas
6' 3" - 189 lbs - 21 years old
47. Elie Okobo - PG
Elan Bearnais Pau-Lacq-Orthez
6' 2" - 180 lbs - 20 years
48. Jacob Evans - SG/SF
Junior - Cincinnati
6' 6" - 200 lbs - 21 years old
49. Chimezie Metu - PF/C
Junior - USC
6' 10" - 220 lbs - 21 years old
50. Svi Mykhailuk - SG/SF
Senior - Kansas
6' 8" - 212 lbs - 21 years old
51. Keenan Evans - PG/SG
Senior - Texas Tech
6' 3" - 183 lbs - 21 years old
52. Brandon McCoy - C
Freshman - UNLV
7' 1" - 250 lbs - 20 years old
53. Donte Grantham - SF
Senior - Clemson
6' 8" - 216 lbs - 23 years old
54. Ray Spalding - C
Junior - Louisville
6' 10" - 215 lbs - 21 years old
55. Kenrich Williams - SF/PF
Senior - TCU
6' 8" - 200 lbs - 23 years old
56. Rodions Kurucs - SF
FC Barcelona
6' 9" - 220 lbs - 20 years old
57. Issuf Sanon - PG/SG
Petrol Olimpija
6' 4" - 190 lbs - 18 years old
58. Arnoldas Kulboka - SF/PF
Brose Bamberg
6' 11" - 215 lbs - 20 years old
59. Alize Johnson - PF/SF
Senior - Missouri State
6' 8" - 217 lbs - 22 years old
60. Isaac Bonga - SF
Frankfurt Skyliners
6' 9" - 200 lbs - 18 years old
61. Billy Preston - PF
Igokea
6' 10" - 240 lbs - 20 years old
62. Devonte' Graham - PG
Senior - Kansas
6' 2" - 186 lbs - 23 years old
63. Angel Delgado - C
Senior - Seton Hall
6' 10" - 245 lbs - 23 years old
64. Rob Gray - PG
Senior - Houston
6' 1" - 185 lbs - 24 years old
65. Jaylen Adams - PG
Senior - Saint Bonaventure
6' 2" - 190 lbs - 22 years old
66. Theo Pinson - SG/SF
Senior - North Carolina
6' 7" - 211 lbs - 22 years old
67. Hamidou Diallo - SG
Freshman - Kentucky
6' 6" - 197 lbs - 19 years old
68. Bruce Brown - SG
Sophomore - Miami
6' 5" - 195 lbs - 21 years old
69. Tyler Davis - C
Junior - Texas A&M
6' 10" - 266 lbs - 21 years old
70. Wenyen Gabriel - PF
Sophomore - Kentucky
6' 9" - 205 lbs - 21 years old
There you have it! Enjoy the NBA Draft and all that comes with it!
